Column: CEO Learnings
In 2014, when I first reviewed The Fourth Revolution: The Global Race to Reinvent the State by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, I was struck by how boldly they tackled the impending crisis in governance. They identified the key political challenge of the coming decade: fixing the bloated and dysfunctional state. Their analysis was as sharp as it was prophetic, revealing deep-seated issues that have only become more glaring in recent years.
Looking back, it’s remarkable how prescient the authors were in implying the rise of populism and the erosion of trust in government. Today, in 2024, we are living through the very “fourth revolution” they foresaw.
John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News since 2015 and former editor-in-chief of The Economist (2006–2015), is a respected journalist whose insights have contributed significantly to discussions on global governance. Adrian Wooldridge, the Global Business Columnist at Bloomberg Opinion, has an equally distinguished career, having spent more than two decades at The Economist, where he served as Washington Bureau chief and later as political editor. Together, their extensive experience lends significant authority to their vision of what’s next for governance.
Three revolutions that have shaped the Western State
Micklethwait and Wooldridge outlined the three-and-a-half great revolutions that have shaped the Western state. The first occurred in the 17th century, when Europe’s princes built centralized states that propelled them ahead of global competitors. The second, in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, saw liberal reformers replace monarchic patronage with more meritocratic, accountable governments, exemplified by the American and French revolutions. The third came with the rise of the welfare state, which has dominated since World War II, with a brief pause in the 1980s, when Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan temporarily slowed government expansion in a “half revolution”.
The book went on to argue that we were on the cusp of a fourth revolution, a revolution in governance, driven by failure, competition, and opportunity. Governments, particularly in Western democracies, had become overextended, bogged down by bureaucratic inefficiencies and financial mismanagement.
Micklethwait and Wooldridge highlighted how the state has permeated every aspect of life, from controlling how long one must study to become a hairdresser to dictating codes hospitals must follow. What they described as government turning from an occasional partner in life into a nanny state now seems an understatement—today, the state is often seen as an oppressive force.
A Rebellion Against the State
Since the publication of the book, we’ve seen the rise of populist movements across Western democracies, largely as a rebellion against this very state overreach.
In the United States, Europe, and elsewhere, many citizens feel that their governments no longer serve their interests but have become engines of self-preservation for political elites and special interests. Micklethwait and Wooldridge predicted that this rebellion would occur, driven by governments’ failure to adapt to new realities. They also foresaw the widening gap between the people and their leaders, exacerbated by a ruling class that has become detached from the struggles of ordinary citizens.
One of the core themes of The Fourth Revolution is that the Western democratic model, long admired for its capacity to foster economic growth and maintain social stability, has become bloated.
The authors reference thinkers such as Hayek, who warned that the state, if left unchecked, would begin to undermine the very society it was designed to protect. The Western model of government expansion—most notably in welfare states—has led to a cumbersome bureaucracy that is slow to reform, even in the face of financial crises and public discontent.
As governments in the West continue to age alongside their populations, the pressures on public resources are immense. Micklethwait and Wooldridge argued that unless governments could reform and embrace more efficient, smaller-state models, they would face the risk of decline. We are witnessing this dysfunction now as the political class remains unable to address mounting debt and aging populations, while resources are stretched thin across sectors resistant to productivity improvements, such as healthcare and education.
The Media and the Perpetuation of Bureaucracy
While The Fourth Revolution insightfully explored the dysfunction of bloated government and the need for reform, Micklethwait and Wooldridge missed a critical element that has since become a dominant force: the role of the media in perpetuating the very bureaucracy they warned against. Ironically, as part of the media establishment, the authors overlooked how traditional media would evolve into a tool used by vested interests to distract the public, suppress reform and maintain power. 
In recent years, we have witnessed a troubling pattern of misinformation, suppression of dissenting viewpoints, and the shaming of those who challenge the status quo.
Rather than acting as watchdogs, much of the mainstream media has aligned itself with the very bureaucracies and elites responsible for the bloated state. Instead of exposing inefficiencies or corruption, the media has often acted as a gatekeeper, protecting those in power. This suppression of information has stifled genuine public debate, while narratives critical of government overreach are marginalized or dismissed.
Even more concerning, we have seen legal mechanisms and public shaming weaponized to silence reformers. Laws have been used to target individuals and organizations that seek to expose the failings of the system, while dissenting voices are often vilified. This control over the flow of information has allowed the bureaucracy to remain entrenched, shielding itself from necessary scrutiny and reform.
In contrast, alternative media platforms have emerged as crucial outlets for those seeking to challenge the prevailing narrative. Independent journalism, social media, and various online platforms have become key spaces for debate and dissent, filling the gap left by traditional outlets.
These alternative voices, often dismissed or ridiculed by mainstream media, in exposing government inefficiency, corruption, and bureaucratic overreach. However, they, too, face suppression, as those who benefit from the status quo seek to silence these new sources of information.
Micklethwait and Wooldridge’s failure to foresee this media complicity represents a significant blind spot in their analysis. The media’s role in reinforcing bureaucracy and shielding it from reform has proven to be one of the most potent forces in maintaining the power structures they sought to challenge.
A Global Shift
One of the most important insights in The Fourth Revolution was the global context for this shift in governance. While the West struggles with inefficiency, the emerging world has produced striking new ideas about government.
From India’s use of mass-production techniques in healthcare to Brazil’s welfare innovations, new models are challenging the West’s dominance. Perhaps most notably, the Asian model of government, typified by Singapore under Lee Kuan Yew, combines elements of authoritarianism with small government. This model, as the authors predicted, is gaining traction in parts of the world where the Western democratic model once held sway.
The authors were clear that the West’s ability to maintain its competitive edge depends on reforming its systems of governance. The question, as they framed it, is whether Western governments can adapt quickly enough to stave off decline. If they can, there is still hope for renewal. If they cannot, we may be condemned to a future of continued dysfunction, much like the ossified Chinese empire of the Middle Ages, which they reference in the book.
A Call to Action
What Micklethwait and Wooldridge laid out in The Fourth Revolution is not just a critique but a call to action.
They believed that, with the right leadership and reforms, governments could be restored to their role as enablers of growth and prosperity. However, as they also noted, this transformation will not come without pain. Governments will need to rein in entitlements, cut through bureaucratic red tape, and face the demographic and economic realities of the modern world.
Their optimism is tempered by realism: they know that reform is hard, and the political will to enact change is often lacking. Yet, as more people see through the false narratives pushed by a complicit media and corrupt officials, there is a growing awareness that change is necessary. The fourth revolution, as they describe it, is not just about cutting government down to size but about doing things better, smarter, and more efficiently. 
In 2024, we are undeniably in a period of transition. Corruption, bureaucratic bloat, and a complicit media have led to widespread dissatisfaction with the state of governance in many Western countries. However, the rise of alternative media, coupled with growing public discontent, signals that the revolution Micklethwait and Wooldridge envisioned is underway. Whether it will succeed depends on whether we can heed their call for reform.
From a 2014 Prediction to Today’s Reality: A Revolution Against the State Foretold by Bloomberg’s Micklethwait and Wooldridge
RELATED RESOURCES:
- The Fourth Revolution: The Global Race to Reinvent the State, by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge
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